Opec amatuer dealer-Open Thread Petroleum, May 29, » Peak Oil Barrel

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Article also available on Microfilm Reel NL Page 1. The Straits Times Estd. Lech Walesa, leader of the banned Solidarity union, slipped back into his old hectic lifestyle today, meet- I ing aides and staging a press conference. Jayakumar and Mr Lee Yiok Seng. Passengers, mostly Malaysians returning to Kuala Lampar after a short holiday here, found they had little Kbiem checking In.

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NewspaperSG - The Straits Times, 16 November

Is it possible output has declined due to a lack of investment? It seems a Hubbert Linearization on just the data points since production left the plateau may not be very accurate, about a 4 Gb URR looks roughly correct for an HL on data, the past 4 years have not been a normal time in Venezuela and I would expect this would affect oil output.

Production dropped because they allowed reservoir pressure to drop below the asphaltine deposition boundary. The field has a large gas cap, an oil leg, and an aquifer which loses permeability and porosity with depth. Recovering that oil would take another 40 years. I forgot: I have published a paper on a nearby reservoir and served as advisor to engineers running reservoir models for a few Furrial trend fields. It was so hot I recommended coolers be installed on the well flowline because we had trouble with NGL going into the gas phase when the well was tested.

The Hubbert Linearization assumes a US type of investment environment. The point here is that when conventional oil peaks in countries with political or other socio-economic limitations there are negative feed-back loops which do not allow to get at the remaining oil easily.

I do know how to take an existing field, study it for real with a team of geoscientists and engineers, and put together a plan to optimize its future development to maximize present value for the owner and the state. Linearization simply assumes a very steady operating environment, and a large enough number of reservoirs to apply a statistical method which I think is a bit too coarse for the type of work I do.

The sheer stupidity and criminality of the regime is hard to describe, but you may get a taste if you read an page report issued yesterday by an expert commission which concluded Maduro and a long list of names in his regime should be indicted for crimes against humanity by the international criminal court.

This is simply a bit beyond the understanding of most people even most petroleum engineers would be a bit lost trying to figure out what to do. If Maduro remains in power long term, then your 3. My main point is that if there was a US investment environment, I think your estimate is probably too low.

A stable capitalist regime might be able to get a URR more like Fernando estimates 4. In addition, Fernando is actually knowledgeable about how these fields might be produced, so his estimate would be far better than mine. Yea, Maduro was to be gone years ago. It is obvious to the corporate press. Russia and China have a different view.

We will see who is right. I have no primary sources to give me any insight. Trump signed an executive order imposing new penalties that bar US companies or citizens from buying debts issued by the government and state-run oil company PDVSA.

Im not the corporate press, and I understand communist dictatorships are ruthless, cruel, inhumane, barbaric and can be genocidal. The fact that the Castro family has ruled Cuba for almost six decades while destroying the country is sufficient proof.

The report names Maduro as well as his main supporters. It is being submitted to the international criminal court for their consideration. Meanwhile the Canadian government added additional individuals to the sanctions list. Included were several low level government functionaries which served as stooges who served as fronts for money laundering schemes used by the regime in Canada.

If the issue goes to the Security Council the Russians will veto, China will probably abstain. And at that point the USA can strip away its control over Citgo and any oil shipments the Maduro regime intends to sell. A simple naval blockade approved by a government in exile will take care of the problem. Fernando— You escaped Cuba or were traded as the Right Wing Dictatorship fell, and being one of the elite, were shipped to a fascist dictatorship in Spain. If you do have a concern for humanity it seems to be a rather narrow and ideologically defined slice of it.

How do you feel about Suharto, or are your concerns for humanity limited to Latin American communists? You are not concerned with humanity. You are concerned with yourself. I was born in Cuba, I was abused and insulted by communists in Cuba. This makes the Castro dictatorship a clear and present danger to the USA and other free nations.

As far as I know, Galtieri and Pinochet are gone for some time now. It seems a little pointless to me talk about them now. Brazilian Guy- not pointless because Pinochet and Samosa are Trumps kind of guys, and he is alive and kicking. Never forget tyranny. Really now? So Brazilian Guy, then what do say about this, eh? The Brazilian military regime was the authoritarian military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from April 1, to March 15, Source Wikipedia But I actually lived through all of it in person.

I hate all authoritarians with a passion and that includes the current Brazilian and US administrations. They sheer lack of morals shows very well when they pop up like roaches singing in defense of the most vicious and destructive dictatorships. Over this weekend we are seeing Ortega kill dozens of protesters in Nicaragua as the communist dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela continue their abuses. I can already guess based on your previous bullshitting: you probably have no problem with it.

You are very selective in your outrage. And while I despise the corruption of Lula and Rousseff, you will be hard pressed if you try to convince me that Temer is any better. When I thought the forecasters had nailed it, it turned out they were spectacularly wrong, but this led to my rejecting wholesale the assumptions behind the forecasts.

This was not the reasonable thing to do. I now see it as an undeniable inevitability, but, unfortunately, as utterly unforecastable, to coin a clunky phrase. This is not a good thing. I have been following the peak oil debate since Estimates of the peak vary from to and beyond.

My views have changed a great deal as well. The main source of debate is so called unconventional and frontier oil. These oils were known to exist 50 years ago, but the cost of extraction was too high to have them classified as reserves the subset of resources that can be extracted at a profit. For me, peak oil is about the cost of extraction rising faster than the market price of oil.

In my opinion macro economic trends from peak oil abound. Some notable trends are: lower wages contributing to greater wealth inequality , decreased margins in the oil industry, greater corruption, and increased political instability. In my view, Dennis is one of the most careful forecasters.

This is why I believe you may be incorrect about oil prices. Intentionally weakened in wake of crash led to highest sustained oil prices in US ever, The oil price was high because that was the oil price needed to balance supply and demand on the World market.

For Brazil, their currency is currently very weak relative to , by nearly a factor of 1. In the mean time per capita real GDP has fallen in Brazil since The high oil prices combined with other political and social problems are what has lead to the truck strikes in Brazil.

Actually income has fallen and the Brazilian Real is weaker than in , so that oil is relatively expensive now in Brazil. I spent a lot of time in Brazil in the period between and The shape of the political corruption scandals was becoming public knowledge.

For example The Lava Jato car wash , Petrobras, massive fraud in the world cup stadium construction fiascos, etc, etc…. The writing was definitely on the wall even then. There was plenty of economic and social strife with protests and strikes in all sectors nationwide. Unfortunately in Portuguese but anyone can Google Translate: This is pretty much what the major headlines looked like in Brazil before the World Cup. IMHO, corruption aside a lot of this was due to the Lula and Rousseff presidencies promising the sky to the lower classes by putting all their eggs in the Petrobras economic basket and then having the misfortune of the shit hitting the fan on their watches and no longer being able to fulfill many of those promises.

The people felt badly cheated and they showed their discontent. I think this is a real danger going forward with any economy that does not diversify from a fossil fuel based economy. Any country which depends on resource extraction for its economy will crash hard when the resource depletes or a cheaper substitute is found.

Edit: Looks like Wyoming has tremendous wind energy potential and a decent amount of solar energy potential. These oils were known to exist 50 years ago, but the cost of extraction was too high to have them classified as reserves the subset of resources that can be extracted at a profit …. Certainly the United States has done nothing to plan for peak oil. We looked at getting to train from Chicago to Auburn to see the Duesenburg museum. The only trains leave in the evening from Chicago and leave Waterloo in the morning.

So you would have to stay over 2 nights for a trip you could do in a day if there were a decent rail service. Compare the same journey in Britain or Europe and there would be many trains you could catch in the morning and late in the evening in either direction. Mexico City, Harbin China and Caracas just before the end of the dry season are awful.

Try Cairo in winter in the chamsin season. The big picture is that peak demand is coming. This is due to ongoing drops in the price of electric vehicles, which decreases the price of substitution. After a while the production cost exceeds the substitution cost, and the oil business becomes unprofitable. I have a bunch of detailed models of this, but the details may be disputed. Canada will buy the Trans Mountain pipeline project.

However, Canada will sell it as soon as possible. I guess this means it will be up and running sometime around